Which Islands Will Be Survived If the Arctic and Antarctic Ice Melts?
Which Islands Stay Above Rising Seas
What would our planet look like if every bit of ice in the Arctic and Antarctic melted? This question, once reserved for distant speculation, has become a growing concern among scientists and environmentalists. The melting of polar ice is already transforming the world’s oceans, but imagining a total melt gives us a glimpse into the future of Earth — a radically different planet where coastlines vanish, islands disappear, and new land emerges. Among the world’s 100,000+ islands, which ones might survive, and what would life look like on them?
The Immense Power of Ice Melt
To understand which islands would endure, we first need to understand just how dramatic the impact of melting polar ice could be. If all the ice in Greenland and Antarctica were to melt, global sea levels could rise by over 65 meters (around 213 feet). This would submerge entire nations and redraw the global map entirely. Most low-lying archipelagos, coral atolls, and coastal cities would vanish beneath the sea.
The Antarctic ice sheet alone contains about 26.5 million gigatons of ice — enough to raise sea levels globally by nearly 58 meters. Meanwhile, the Greenland ice sheet holds about 2.8 million gigatons, adding another 7 meters. Even the partial melting of these glaciers has already raised global sea levels by more than 20 centimeters since the late 19th century, disrupting coastlines and ecosystems worldwide.
Why Islands Are at the Frontline of Climate Change
Islands are more vulnerable to climate change than almost any other type of landmass. Their small size, dependence on marine ecosystems, and limited elevation make them especially sensitive to rising seas and shifting weather patterns. For some, the threat is immediate — such as the Maldives, where residents are already preparing for the possibility of national relocation. For others, like Iceland or Hawaii, survival depends on topography and geology.
However, in the hypothetical world where all the ice melts, the distinction between small and large islands becomes clear. High volcanic islands and continental islands will stand the best chance of survival, while low coral atolls and limestone plateaus will likely vanish.
Factors That Influence Island Survival
- Elevation and Relief: The higher the terrain, the less likely it is to be fully submerged. Islands with mountain ranges or volcanic peaks have natural defense against rising seas.
- Geological Origin: Volcanic and continental islands are generally more stable and elevated, while coral and limestone islands are flat and fragile.
- Geographic Location: Islands near polar regions might experience new land exposure as ice retreats, while tropical islands face stronger storms and erosion.
- Human Adaptation: Infrastructure, planning, and technology could determine which islands remain livable even if partially flooded.
High-Elevation Islands That Could Survive
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| The Island That Survived the Melting Ice - Illustration |
1. Iceland — The Volcanic Fortress of the North
Iceland is one of the most likely islands to survive the melting of both polar regions. Its landscape is dominated by volcanoes, glaciers, and mountain ranges, with an average elevation of over 500 meters. Even with a 60-meter sea-level rise, Iceland would retain much of its landmass. Ironically, while the loss of nearby Arctic ice could cause significant climate shifts, Iceland’s geothermal and hydroelectric resources would allow it to remain self-sufficient. Its highlands could become one of the last refuges of the North Atlantic world.
2. Japan — Land of the Rising Mountains
Japan’s islands are mountainous, with 75% of the land consisting of highlands. Even if sea levels rose dramatically, much of Honshu, Shikoku, Kyushu, and Hokkaido would remain above water. Coastal megacities like Tokyo and Osaka would disappear, forcing millions to relocate inland. The Japanese Alps, Mount Fuji, and the volcanic peaks of Hokkaido would still dominate the skyline. However, agriculture and infrastructure would need to completely transform, as fertile plains and coastal fisheries vanish.
3. Hawaii — Mountains in the Ocean
Hawaii’s islands rise from the Pacific like towers, some peaking over 4,000 meters above sea level. Even after a 60-meter sea-level rise, Hawaii would still retain substantial land. Yet, its coral reefs and coastal ecosystems would suffer catastrophic loss. The famous Waikiki Beach would vanish, and Honolulu would be underwater. Future generations might live in new cities built higher on Mauna Kea or Haleakalā’s slopes, overlooking a reshaped ocean world.
4. New Guinea and Borneo — Giants of the Tropics
New Guinea and Borneo are among the largest islands on Earth, with towering mountains and vast highlands. New Guinea’s central mountains reach nearly 5,000 meters, meaning it would retain the majority of its land. Borneo, too, has ranges like Mount Kinabalu (4,095 meters), which would remain untouched. These islands could become massive “sky refuges” for biodiversity, although lowland rainforests, mangroves, and river deltas would vanish. The cultural and ecological diversity here might survive — but only in the heights.
5. Madagascar — The Resilient Red Island
Madagascar’s elevated central plateau, which rises to nearly 2,800 meters, ensures that a significant portion of the island would remain dry. Coastal cities like Mahajanga and Toamasina would drown, but Antananarivo — the capital, located in the highlands — would survive. The island’s famous lemurs and endemic plants would face severe habitat loss, yet the upper elevations might offer sanctuaries for both humans and wildlife. Madagascar could become one of the last large islands of the Indian Ocean still habitable.
6. The Canary Islands — Volcanic Peaks in the Atlantic
The Canary Islands, formed by ancient volcanoes, have rugged topography that could withstand significant sea-level rise. Tenerife’s Mount Teide (3,718 meters) and the highlands of La Palma would remain well above sea level. However, many beaches and ports would vanish, altering tourism and trade. These islands could serve as important refuges for both wildlife and displaced populations from the nearby African mainland.
7. New Zealand — The Last Southern Sanctuary
New Zealand’s high elevation makes it a likely survivor. The Southern Alps on the South Island, with peaks over 3,700 meters, would easily remain above even the most extreme sea-level rise. Much of the North Island would survive as well, although low-lying regions such as Auckland and Wellington might disappear. New Zealand’s fertile highlands could become valuable agricultural land in a world where most coastal plains are lost.
Islands That Would Vanish Beneath the Sea
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| If the Ice Melts Lost Islands Beneath the Sea - Illustration |
1. The Maldives — The First to Go
The Maldives, averaging just 1.5 meters above sea level, would be among the first nations lost. Even a small increase of two meters would make the islands uninhabitable. In a world where the polar ice caps fully melt, the Maldives would vanish completely. Its population would likely relocate to neighboring countries like India or Sri Lanka. The disappearance of its coral ecosystems would also have profound effects on Indian Ocean biodiversity.
2. Tuvalu, Kiribati, and the Marshall Islands
These low-lying Pacific atolls, built on coral reefs, rise no more than 3 meters above the ocean. They would vanish entirely, leaving no trace of their cultures or environments. Their residents are already recognized as some of the world’s first “climate refugees.” In a fully melted world, their history would exist only in memory and digital archives.
3. The Bahamas and the Cayman Islands
The Bahamas, composed of limestone platforms barely rising above sea level, would be completely submerged. The Cayman Islands, though slightly higher, would also lose nearly all of their land area. Once-pristine beaches and tourist resorts would disappear under the waves, leaving only shallow reefs and submerged ruins as reminders of their existence.
4. Seychelles and the Maldives — Coral Casualties
Though the Seychelles include some granite-based islands, most of their territory consists of coral formations. Mahé, Praslin, and La Digue would shrink drastically. Their loss would devastate not just local populations, but also countless marine species dependent on the Indian Ocean’s coral ecosystem.
Unexpected Winners — New Islands Emerging from the Ice
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| Many New Islands are Emerging - Illustration |
As the ice melts, not only would existing islands change — new islands might appear. Greenland, currently buried under thick ice, would reveal vast mountain ranges and fertile valleys. Antarctica’s hidden bedrock would also give birth to new islands and archipelagos as its ice retreats. These newly exposed lands could become the “continents of the future,” although they would initially be barren and hostile environments.
In northern Canada, for example, the melting Arctic could connect or divide existing landmasses, forming new islands in the Canadian Archipelago. Similarly, parts of Siberia might transform as permafrost melts and coasts erode, giving rise to new geological formations.
How Human Civilization Would Adapt
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| If the Ice Melts, How Will Humans Adapt - Illustration |
For humans, survival on the remaining islands would depend on adaptation. Coastal infrastructure would be lost, forcing the construction of new cities on higher ground. Freshwater scarcity would become a major issue as seawater infiltrates underground aquifers. Agriculture would need to move to mountainous areas or shift toward hydroponic and artificial systems. Fishing industries would collapse or relocate as ocean chemistry changes.
However, surviving islands like Iceland, Japan, and New Zealand could become technological and agricultural strongholds. They would attract climate refugees and play critical roles in sustaining what’s left of global civilization. A new global geography would emerge — centered not on continents, but on surviving highlands and volcanic islands.
Ecological Consequences
The loss of low-lying islands would erase unique ecosystems that evolved in isolation for millennia. Coral reefs, mangroves, and tropical forests would vanish, taking countless species with them. On surviving islands, the climate would shift drastically. Iceland might become greener, while tropical islands could face severe droughts or hurricanes of unprecedented strength.
Migration of species would become chaotic. Birds and marine animals that depend on island habitats for nesting would struggle to adapt. Humans might intervene, relocating species to safer highlands — a desperate effort to preserve remnants of Earth’s biodiversity.
The Future of Islands on a Warmer Earth
In a world without polar ice, Earth would look vastly different. Many of the world’s most beloved islands — from the Maldives to the Bahamas — would cease to exist. Yet some islands would endure: Iceland, New Zealand, Hawaii, and the mountainous islands of the Pacific and Atlantic would survive as isolated bastions of life. They would become the new centers of civilization, culture, and ecological refuge.
This scenario is not just a doomsday vision; it’s a warning. The choices humanity makes today — reducing carbon emissions, protecting forests, and investing in renewable energy — determine whether these predictions remain hypothetical or become history. The fate of the islands is, ultimately, the fate of us all.
Haruka Cigem - Curious Facts Explored.
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